CSU experts: Prep for 'very active' 2024 hurricane season. See possible Florida impact
Colorado State University is predicting a "very active" 2024 season, with 23 named storms, 11 hurricanes and 5 major hurricanes. Colorado State University meteorologists have released their first official forecast for the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season, predicting a "very active" season with 23 named storms. The predictions echo earlier forecasts by AccuWeather and Florida's Dr. Ryan Truchelut, chief meteorologist at WeatherTiger. The prediction predicts an above-average probability of major hurricanes making landfall along the continental United States coastline and in the Caribbean. This is due to the combination of La Niña and record warm water temperatures in the Atlantic basin. The National Hurricane Center's season forecast is expected to be released in May. The forecast also suggests a 10-15% chance that 2024 bests 1933's record for the most intense season.
Published : a month ago by Cheryl McCloud in Weather
Colorado State University meteorologists have released their first official forecast for the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season.
The forecast calls for a "very active" season of 23 named storms.
Their predictions echo earlier forecasts from AccuWeather and Florida's Dr. Ryan Truchelut, chief meteorologist at WeatherTiger.
Next up will be the season forecast from the National Hurricane Center, usually released in May.
Indications as early as February have had forecasters on edge, predicting it will be an active season because of the combination of La Niña and record warm water temperatures in the Atlantic basin. The Atlantic basin is made up of the northern Atlantic, Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico.
Where could hurricanes hit this season?
"We anticipate a well above-average probability for major hurricanes making landfall along the continental United States coastline and in the Caribbean," CSU meteorologists said in the announcement released April 4.
Probabilities of at least 1 major hurricane to make landfall in US, Florida higher than average
A major hurricane is one that is Category 3 or higher. A Category 3 storm has maximum sustained winds of at least 111 mph.
• Entire continental U.S. coastline: 62% (average from 1880–2020 is 43%)
• U.S. East Coast, including peninsula of Florida (south and east of Cedar Key, Florida): 34% (average from 1880–2020 is 21%)
• Gulf Coast from the Florida Panhandle (west and north of Cedar Key, Florida) westward to Brownsville: 42% (average from 1880–2020 is 27%)
Why is everyone predicting a very busy hurricane season?
Two factors come into play: La Niña and very warm water temperatures.
Both favor the formation of hurricanes.
"La Niña typically increases Atlantic hurricane activity through decreases in vertical wind shear," CSU said. Wind shear tears apart developing storms.
The two together pack a powerful punch when it comes to hurricanes.
AccuWeather forecast for 2024 Atlantic hurricane season. When is hurricane season for Florida?
AccuWeather is predicting an "explosive" hurricane season that has the potential to break the all-time record of 30 named storms in a season.
“The 2024 Atlantic hurricane season is forecast to feature well above the historical average number of tropical storms, hurricanes, major hurricanes, and direct U.S. impacts,” said AccuWeather Lead Hurricane Forecaster Alex DaSilva. “All indications are pointing toward a very active and potentially explosive Atlantic hurricane season in 2024.”
Here's the AccuWeather forecast for the upcoming 2024 Atlantic hurricane season:
• Potential to break all-time record of 30 named storms in one season.
The warm water temperatures combined with La Niña means there is high confidence for a "hyperactive" season. "The core uncertainty is therefore whether the upcoming hurricane season will be crazy busy, or merely pretty busy," said Dr. Ryan Truchelut is chief meteorologist at WeatherTiger.
Truchelut works with the USA TODAY Network-Florida to provide the latest storm information Florida residents need.
The 2024 season has a 50-50 shot of landing in the ranges of 20-24 tropical storms, nine to 12 hurricanes, and four to seven major hurricanes.
"Our model boldly suggests a 10% to 15% chance that 2024 bests 1933’s record for the most intense season."
The Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1 through Nov. 30.
The Pacific hurricane season runs from May 15 through Nov. 30.
Storms can and do form before and after those dates, though.
Both La Niña and El Niño tend to reach peak intensity from fall through winter, according to AccuWeather.
The busiest portion of the Atlantic hurricane season occurs from August through October, with the peak being Sept. 10.
How busy was 2023 hurricane season? How many tropical storms in 2023 Atlantic hurricane season?
The 2023 Atlantic hurricane season was the fourth busiest season since 1950, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Association.
The season was "characterized by record-warm Atlantic sea surface temperatures and a strong El Niño," according to NOAA. El Niño typically helps prevent tropical cyclones from developing.
Seven storms were hurricanes and three intensified to major hurricanes. Hurricane Idalia was the only hurricane that made landfall in the U.S. The Category 3 storm came ashore Aug. 30, 2023, near Keaton Beach, in Florida's Big Bend region, NOAA reported.
How many tropical cyclones does an average hurricane season have?
Based on a 30-year average from 1991 to 2020, the typical Atlantic hurricane season has 14 named storms, seven hurricanes, and three major hurricanes, A major hurricane is a Category 3 or higher storm, and a storm is classified as a Category 3 when maximum sustained winds are at least 111 mph, according to NOAA.
The first named storm typically forms in mid- to late June, the first hurricane tends to form in early to mid-August, and the first major hurricane forms in late August or early September.
La Niña is a natural climate pattern marked by cooler-than-average seawater in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean.
It is one of the main drivers of weather in the United States, especially during the late fall, winter and early spring. It's the opposite to the more well-known El Niño, which occurs when Pacific Ocean water is warmer than average.
La Niña can bring more tropical cyclones in the Atlantic basin by weakening wind shear.
When there is no or reduced wind shear, that allows tropical cyclones to develop and intensify.
Wind shear, when present, tears apart developing storms or can even prevent them from forming.
National Hurricane Center making several changes for 2024 hurricane season
The National Hurricane Center will bring out an experimental tropical cyclone forecast cone graphic just in time for the busiest months of the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season.
The new cone will add tropical storm and hurricane watches and warnings for interior counties in the path of the storm. The current cone displays watches and warnings only for coastal counties.
NHC new cone of uncertainty:National Hurricane Center experimenting with new cone this season
Watches and warnings for interior counties has been provided by local National Weather Service offices. The new graphic will combine tropical storm and hurricane watches and warnings into a single graphic.NHC making more changes during 2024 Atlantic hurricane season
More changes coming from National Hurricane Center for 2024 hurricane season include:
• Tropical storm, hurricane and storm surge watches and warnings will be issued for intermediate advisories in addition to the full advisories.
• Tropical storm wind radius forecasts will go out five days instead of three days.
• The National Hurricane Center will expand information provided in Spanish to include:
What are the hurricane names for 2024 Atlantic hurricane season?
Here are the names for the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season:
Topics: Hurricanes